Bản tin tư vấn giao dịch Vàng 12-5-2009

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Comex Gold (GC)

Gold continues to stay in tight range below 9.265 so far and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Favor is still in the bullish case as long as 880.1 support holds. That is, correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865/865.6 already. This is indeed supported by break of the falling trend line resistance. Further rally should be seen to 967.7 first and then 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that upside momentum is so far rather unconvincing. Break of 880.1 will invalidate this view and indicate that correction from 1007.7 is possibly still in progress for 865 and below.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we’ll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.

However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

20090512-gc-2

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

20090512-gc-1

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